The September freight market has been anything but calm. Carriers have pushed through aggressive General Rate Increases (GRIs), blank sailings are tightening space, and port congestion in China is worsening. While shippers hoped for a post–Labor Day rate dip, what we’ve seen instead is a surge in spot rates, a strategic capacity squeeze, and rising uncertainty as Golden Week approaches.

September Freight Market Sees Rate Surge Despite Weak Demand

Carriers kicked off the month with a bold $800–$900/FEU GRI, and the effects were immediate. Spot rates on the Asia–US West Coast route jumped 20.95% week-over-week, despite a 20% decline in bookings to the U.S. over the past six weeks. This isn’t a demand-driven rally, it’s a calculated carrier move. Blank sailings and tighter slot allocations are being used to create artificial scarcity, leaving shippers with two choices: pay premium rates or face costly delays.

And the pressure isn’t easing soon. New GRIs are slated for September 15 and October 1, with some carriers hiking rates by as much as $3,000 per 40-foot container. For importers already juggling tariff costs and weak consumer demand, this means freight budgets will be under even more stress heading into Q4.

Port Congestion Intensifies as September Freight Market Tightens

Golden Week is right around the corner, and its ripple effects are already visible. Shanghai and Ningbo are reporting two- to three-day waits, with more than 150 vessels anchored at the Shanghai–Ningbo complex. Qinzhou is facing 11-day delays, while Huangpu and Wuhan are averaging six days. This congestion isn’t just seasonal; alliances are actively managing vessel rotations to hold rates at elevated levels.

Ocean Alliance accounts for more than half of the 35 blank sailings planned for October, while THE Alliance is canceling multiple eastbound services during Weeks 40–41. Maersk and MSC are skipping several Asia–USEC calls, citing port congestion and vessel rotation delays. Shippers with time-sensitive cargo should lock in bookings early or risk getting rolled.

Tariff Updates Provide Some Relief

Amid all the capacity crunch news, there was one piece of positive policy development. The U.S. Trade Representative extended Section 301 tariff exclusions until November 29, 2025. This offers importers a brief reprieve, keeping certain Chinese products free of additional tariffs and allowing for better inventory and contract planning. Still, uncertainty remains as the USTR could revise the list before the extension expires.

What This Means for Shippers

The September freight market is a reminder that carriers are willing to sacrifice volume to protect pricing power. Shippers should be proactive: review allocations, communicate forecasted volumes early, and budget for rate hikes that will likely continue through October. With capacity tightening and port congestion building, planning ahead is crucial to avoid costly disruptions. For shippers, that means the only way to avoid painful disruptions is to plan ahead. Rates aren’t likely to fall until after Golden Week and even then, carriers may continue to hold the line if they can keep utilization high.

Tips for Freight Forwarders and Importers

Here’s how forwarders and shippers can navigate this challenging market:

1. Secure Space Early

Book shipments as far ahead as possible. Waiting until the last minute in a market with 30+ blank sailings planned is a recipe for rolled cargo. If your clients have forecasted orders, get them on the books now.

2. Consider Alternative Gateways

If your usual port pair is severely congested, explore routing through alternative Chinese ports or using a mix of ocean and rail solutions where viable. Even if transit times are slightly longer, it can reduce the risk of missed deadlines.

3. Build Rate Flexibility into Contracts

With GRIs coming fast, consider negotiating index-linked contracts or clauses that cap rate increases within a certain band. This can protect you and your clients from extreme budget overruns.

4. Leverage Premium Services Strategically

Premium services can be expensive, but for high-value or time-critical cargo, they may be worth it to avoid demurrage, detention, and missed production deadlines.

5. Communicate Constantly

Keep your clients updated on blank sailings, port conditions, and rate developments. Transparency is key to maintaining trust during volatile times.

Looking Ahead

The September freight market is a reminder that carriers have learned to play the long game. They will not flood the market with capacity the way they did pre-pandemic. Instead, they are using every tool, blank sailings, slow steaming, vessel sharing, and strategic omissions to hold rates up. For shippers and forwarders, Q4 will be a balancing act between securing space and protecting margins. Those who plan ahead, diversify routing options, and stay closely aligned with partners will come out ahead. Those who wait and hope for rates to drop could find themselves facing delays, higher surcharges, and missed deadlines right as the holiday season hits.

Final Word

September is showing us that the market can turn on a dime even without strong demand. The message for forwarders and importers is simple: stay proactive, not reactive. Use this time to firm up forecasts, lock in space, and prepare your clients for a challenging but navigable peak season.